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March 25, 2005

With just two weeks left until the close of the CD session, and just one month before the start of the Seventh Review Conference of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Ambassador Ayalogu of Nigeria, the new rotating President of the Conference, faces a sizeable task.

In the first session under the Nigerian Presidency, Pakistan took the floor of the CD, followed by brief notes from Algeria and Hungary and a right of reply from India. All statements are available at: http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/political/cd/speeches05/index.html.

In order to affect “a positive change in the process of the CD…(that) can possibly energize the NPT,” Ambassador Ayalogu intends to continue consultations based on the “Food for Thought” paper used by his predecessors, Ambassadors Sanders and Caughley, of Netherlands and New Zealand, respectively. If, however, “after two weeks, there were no positive indications of broad support” for the ‘Food for Thought’ paper, he will then “focus the search light on the A5 proposal,” a “multidimensional approach” that may enable the CD to “identify and narrow down” possible points of consensus.

He will also be meeting with the Regional Coordinators, who will be asking their groups:

”1) What are the problems in your groups in commencing discussions on the Five Ambassadors Proposals (A-5)? and
2) What are the amendments if any, or the accommodation that your group is willing to make on the A5 in order to facilitate discussions?”

Quoting Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Freivalds, Ambassador Masood Khan of Pakistan noted that the failure of the CD is “political”, not “diplomatic”. He believed that, “if the stalemate is deliberate, not advertent, it cannot be broken with innovative semantics, as the dynamic of this Conference is influenced by the changing paradigm of international politics.”

Ambassador Khan, the CD's newest member, said that whenever negotiations on an Fissile Materials Treaty (FMT) begin, they must cover existing stockpiles and include an effective verification mechanism. Also, they should strive to Prevent an Arms Race in Outer Space. Furthermore, he asserted, the Conference on Disarmament should include a program of work on conventional arms control at regional and sub-regional levels, and it should also take up the issue of missiles in all their aspects.

Ambassador Khan also touched on Pakistan’s nuclear capability, insisting that “pursuit of nuclear capability was security driven, not status driven,” and proceeded to explain at length the modus operandi of his country’s nuclear program and the measures they have undertaken to prevent proliferation, ensure safety and responsibility of their arsenal, and easing tensions with its nuclear neighbor, India. 

Algeria’s Ambassador Jazairy expressed concerns that the "Food for Thought" paper might have actually increased the divide on the issues stalling the program of work of the CD. He reiterated his delegation’s support of the A5 proposal, of which Algeria is a principal drafter, and called on the President to carry out negotiations based solely on that.

Ambassador Tibor Tóth of Hungary, who presided over the Fifth Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), remarked on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the entry-into-force of the BWC. He announced that the DVD containing the video files of the 2004 meeting of experts and the meeting of States Parties of the BWC are available to the States Parties of the BWC. He also asked the States to reply to their questionnaire in order to update the Repository.

In a right of reply to the lengthy statement by Pakistan, Ambassador Jayant Prasad of India stated that “India does not accept the linkage between nuclear restraint and conventional balance. The defence requirements and threat perceptions of India and Pakistan are not identical, hence we do not entertain the idea of a conventional military balance between India and Pakistan.” Ambassador Prasad insisted that India was open to all constructive suggestions on nuclear and conventional confidence building measures.

The two weeks that remain before the close of the CD, might just be, as Ambassador Ayalogu worried, "too short to expect such changes" that would be necessary to impel progress in that august body. Soon, members of the CD, as well as States party to the NPT and the NGOs that closely monitor these fora, must turn to the NPT Review Conference itself, with the hopes that its outcome, as stated by Ambassador Ayalogu, will be the basis of newfound political will needed to "energize or catalyze the CD."