New UN panel will study the effects of nuclear war

12 November 2024

For the first time since 1989, the United Nations will establish a panel of experts next year to examine the effects of nuclear war. In a resolution adopted on 1 November 2024 at the UN General Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International Security, 144 states voted in favour of setting up a new panel of 21 experts to study the physical effects and societal consequences of a nuclear war. Only three states voted against the resolution—nuclear-armed France, Russia, and the United Kingdom. Most other nuclear-armed states—Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, India, Israel, Pakistan, and the United States—abstained, while China voted in favour. France and the United Kingdom reportedly tried to get members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to vote against the resolution, but this effort failed. Some NATO states voted in favour while others abstained.

The resolution was tabled by Ireland and Aotearoa New Zealand, who explained that the new study, which will report to the First Committee in 2027, “will deliver a stronger evidence base that will inform the world and contribute to constructive dialogue with a view to convergence in work on nuclear disarmament and arms control,” and that it will also strengthen the taboo against nuclear weapons.

The idea for the study came from a recommendation made by the Scientific Advisory Group to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in December 2023. The co-chair of the Scientific Advisory Group published an article advocating for the study in Reaching Critical Will’s First Committee Monitor, explaining, “A UN-mandated expert study assessing and addressing the current knowledge of the effects of nuclear war can help enable a more fully informed and inclusive global debate on what nuclear war means in terms of the harm that would come to people and planet.” Furthermore, he argued, “An impartial science and evidence-based benchmark for the global consequences of nuclear war would be especially important for people and countries that have not done nuclear war studies of their own, but would be innocent bystanders in any nuclear war.”

Reaching Critical Will worked with UN delegates to encourage the adoption of the resolution, which was also supported by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the Federation of American Scientists, Scientists for Global Responsibility, the Arms Control Association, the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Annie Jacobson, the author of Nuclear War: A Doosmday Scenario, and many others. The panel will be set up in 2025 and work through 2026, reporting back to the UN General Assembly in 2027.

The fact that certain nuclear-armed states do not want this study to be undertaken shows that they know exactly how devastating their weapons of mass destruction are and do not want this information reaching the public. Of course, a UN study is not enough on its own to end the era of nuclear weapons, but it will be a useful tool to build support in this direction, including by mobilising public attention to this issue. Without prejudging the results of the study, it is likely that once updated information about the effects of nuclear war is more widely available, the decisions by these governments to continue investing in nuclear weapons and wielding them through “deterrence” doctrines and nuclear force postures will be exposed for the dangerous political gamble that this is, which will help build momentum for the elimination of nuclear weapons.